SKU: 141257
Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 07 March 2022

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

Companies have long talked about the importance of gas in energy transition strategies. But their actions don’t reflect the strategic messaging. The proportion of gas in the forecast production mix in 2030 for our corporate universe fell from 41% to 38% over the last five years. The Majors delivered the biggest shift to oil during this period, with gas falling from 48% to 42% of total expected 2030 output. We think many companies will still favour oil in the near term. But leaning too far into oil could be a strategic mistake. We look at what's needed to incentivise a rebalancing to gas and why it's important.

Executive Summary
Corporate portfolios have shifted to oil during the last five years
Near-term portfolio development may continue to favour oil
Leaning too far into oil could be a strategic mistake
How can companies respond?
Soaring oil prices will drive strategic differentiation

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Percentage point change in the % share of gas production in 2030 (Q1 2018 versus Q4 2021)*
The Majors’ % gas production targets versus Wood Mackenzie’s projection
Production from conventional reserves sanctioned by the Majors since 2017
Production from commercial exploration discoveries made by the Majors since 2017
Ratio of sub-commercial gas resources to total commercial reserves (Q1 2018 versus Q4 2021)*