Insight
Cabot blazes its own trail amid Marcellus monotony
Report summary
Leading Northeast players are guiding to 2020 capital programs that will keep production flat. This strategy shows investors that companies have the asset base to work through the myriad of market headwinds without missing on any future upside. It's easier to grow from a flat base than a shrinking one. The market has warmed to this strategy, but it'll take more than one year of restricted spend to improve Marcellus producers' finances. The longer northeast producers hold a maintenance capital program, the larger the gap in financial health on the other side. At what gas price does the gap become wide enough to materially impact growth outlooks?
Table of contents
-
Executive summary
- Why such spending pressure?
- Determining the effectiveness of keeping production flat
- Who needs to refinance? Who can consider growth?
- Cabot shines
- Conclusion
- Appendix: company detail
Tables and charts
This report includes 13 images and tables including:
- Wood Mackenzie financial health index Northeast-focused E&Ps
- Debt maturity (including revolver) schedule through 2025
- Normalized Marcellus PDP decline rates by operator
- Average first-year recovery per well
- First-year recovery for wells completed since 2019 for Southwest PA
- First-year recovery for wells completed since 2019 for Northeast PA
- Annual average capex requirement by company necessary to hold production flat
- Annual net cash flow at US$2.50/mcf Henry Hub
- Net cash flow delta between flat $2/mcf and $3/mcf Henry Hub
- Annual maintenance capex/daily production
- Change in principal debt through 2025 at flat $2.75/mcf Henry Hub
- Annual net cash flow at US$3.00/mcf Henry Hub
What's included
This report contains:
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