On 7 October 2014 Cairn (40% and operator) announced a discovery at its deepwater FAN 1 well in Senegal. Cairn s P50 estimate of STOIIP is 950 mmbbls of what looks like good quality oil. Wood Mackenzie assumes a 25% recovery factor giving recoverable volumes of 238 mmbbls. But the geology is a key risk with the reservoir having a low net to gross ratio. Under the applicable terms for the block we believe that the threshold for a commercial development is at least 300 mmbbls.