Can Kazakhstan avoid a future gas shortfall?

In 2022, the Kazakh government has sounded the alarm about the country’s gas supply-demand balance. Domestic gas consumption has grown 35% since 2017 and will continue to rise. In contrast, marketed upstream gas supply is flatlining. Kazakhstan is a large-scale gas producer, but less than 60% of its raw, often sour, output is monetised. The remainder is largely re-injected at its leading oil fields. Long-awaited price and tax reforms are under discussion to incentivise further gas processing and marketing, led by state-owned QazaqGaz. However, without new upstream supply, little gas could be available for export to China. In our short video, we evaluate Kazakhstan’s gas sector: • Supply - what is the outlook for raw gas output and gas sales? • Resources - where are the country’s undeveloped gas fields located? • Market - what is the domestic price trend? • Trade - will gas be available for export and what role will imports from Turkmenistan play?