Caspian upstream: 2019 in review

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29 January 2020

Caspian upstream: 2019 in review

Report summary

2019 was a year of mixed messages in the Caspian upstream sector. The competitiveness of large-scale opportunities and new frontiers was in the spotlight throughout – some delivered far better than others. Powered by our Lens platform, we evaluate five key themes that shaped 2019 in the region: Milestones at Azerbaijan's Azeri Chirag Guneshli oil megaproject – multi-billion-dollar FID and M&A Kazakh megaproject pains for Chevron at Tengizchevroil expansion – the world’s largest ongoing project overruns An offshore reality check – Majors relinquish 500 million barrels of oil resource in Kazakhstan Production ramp-ups – growth at Shah Deniz Phase Two (Azerbaijan) and Kashagan (Kazakhstan) The bigger picture – smooth political succession in Kazakhstan and a relentless reform drive in Uzbekistan.

Table of contents

    • 1. Azerbaijan secures FID for next ACG megaproject phase as MOL makes an entrance
    • US$6 billion Azeri Central East (ACE) project – the region’s largest FID of 2019
    • MOL’s US$1.57 billion entry into Azerbaijan – the region’s largest M&A deal of 2019
    • 2. Megaproject history repeating – Chevron’s Tengizchevroil expansion overruns strengthen the regional stereotype
    • Revised FGP-WPMP budget and schedule have wide-ranging implications
    • 3. Caspian offshore faces a competition conundrum
    • Kazakhstan – offshore greenfield relinquishment sends a stark message
    • Azerbaijan – IOC involvement in Umid-Babek project looks increasingly unlikely
    • 4. Ramp-up at Kashagan (Kazakhstan) and Shah Deniz (Azerbaijan) grab the attention
    • Liquids – a positive year at Kashagan in Kazakhstan
    • Gas – Shah Deniz Phase Two builds up and Central Asian exports to China flatline
    • 5. A year of change – political succession in Kazakhstan and more reforms in Uzbekistan
    • Uzbekistan builds the reform momentum in its energy sector
    • Our key Insights of 2019

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Caspian upstream in 2019 – key figures
  • ACG oil production outlook
  • Tengizchevroil expansion (FGP-WPMP) – revised cost estimate
  • Kalamkas More-Khazar vs. Majors’ growth projects*
  • Global liquids cost curve in 2030
  • Caspian liquids production
  • Caspian sales gas production
  • Uzbekistan reform timeline (to 2019)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Caspian upstream: 2019 in review

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