Insight
Chinese oil production: In permanent decline?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
China's domestic oil production accounts for 5% of global supply in 2016, making it the seventh largest crude producing country in the world. But that share looks set to shrink considerably over the next decade as the country faces a severe decline in oil production. China's liquids output is forecast to fall from 4.2 million b/d in 2015 to 3.5 million b/d by 2020. What is driving our forecast of falling output – is it natural field decline, capital cuts or government policy, or all of the above? In other words, is this a long-term trend that would exist even without the price drop or is it just a short-term cyclical fluctuation? Understanding this is vital to attaining a clear picture of the long-term outlook for China's output.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- China's liquids production on the decline
- Capex cuts from the NOCs
- Implications for the NOCs and China
- Risks to our forecast
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
China's domestic liquids production by themeChina's domestic liquids production by operatorChinese oil production: In permanent decline?: Image 3
-
The three Chinese NOCs' capital spending on domestic E&PChina's liquids supply breakeven cost: producing assetsChinese oil production: In permanent decline?: Image 6China's liquids supply breakeven cost: pre-FIDChinese oil production: In permanent decline?: Image 8
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Country Report
Angola upstream summary
Sub-Saharan Africa's second-largest oil producer is expecting more FIDs and increasing capital investment. Fiscal improvements have helped.
$11,340
Country Report
Egypt upstream summary
Egypt's gas production continues to decline, even more steeply than anticipated. We expect average domestic output in 2025 to be ...
$11,340
Country Report
Italy upstream summary
One of southern Europe's largest oil and gas producers - Italy's oil production will approach 100,000 b/d by the early 2030s ...
$6,480
