Insight
Comparing 2022 and 2023 tight oil growth: repeat, slowdown, or breakout?
Report summary
Tight oil growth is always a focal point for the oil market. The resource theme grew 1.6 million b/d in 2018, but also shrank in 2020 and 2021 when rig count crashed, and completion crews were idled at record pace. Last year's growth was full of complexities too. The mid-year 2022 rig surge defied some OFS bottlenecks and combined with stellar results in the Delaware to push New Mexico growth alone to nearly 350,000 b/d. We break down five key drivers – some bullish and some bearish - for our 2023 US Lower 48 oil and condensate forecast. Momentum drives the main message, with extremely efficient rigs outstripping other variables like type curve downgrades.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
How much does the Permian lead by?
- 1. New Mexico is a rocket ship – Bullish growth
- 2. Momentum matters in tight oil supply – Bullish growth
- 3. Well location vs well performance – Bullish growth
- 4. Supply chain squeeze isn’t letting up – Bearish growth
- 5. Searching for corporate surprises - Mixed
- How firm is our conviction?
Tables and charts
This report includes 1 images and tables including:
- 2023 Lower 48 oil growth by region
What's included
This report contains:
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