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Counting the cost of delaying Ichthys

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Report summary

INPEX is the latest Australian LNG operator to announce a cost overrun and delay to start up. The project is now expected to be delivered 9 months late and around 10% over initial cost estimates. We estimate the project will cost US$38.5 billion to deliver. Mitigating the impact of this set back a 6% increase in project capacity was also revealed. The announcement has a modest impact on our estimated project NPV particularly compared to other LNG projects reducing the value by around 5%. For INPEX the delay will defer the successful implementation of its growth strategy. Accounting for over half its upstream value Ichthys is set to deliver the majority of its annual cash flow. The extension of the construction phase and additional capital outlay makes it harder for INPEX to financially adapt to the current climate and does little to help achieve ambitious production targets.

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    Counting the cost of delaying Ichthys

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This report includes 3 images and tables including:

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  • Impact of Ichthys cost overrun, delay and expansion on base case valuation
  • Counting the cost of delaying Ichthys: Image 2
  • INPEX cash flow breakeven

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