Energy Snapshot: Industry Themes - January 2017

With a strengthened oil price and depressed cost environment, upstream operators are starting to ramp up activity in the new year. Decisions will need to be made over the next twelve months on a large swath of major upstream projects, so global investment is expected to rise in 2017.  In the US, we expect the onshore rig count to reach about 800 rigs and crude production to hit about 6.8 million b/d by year end. The Permian has led the pack in US Lower 48 production, but will see some cost inflation raising breakevens by US$1-2/bbl as activity rises. From the corporate perspective, the majority of large-cap operators in the US can now afford a 10% growth at US$60/bbl WTI, and in the second half of 2016, we saw big shake up in the Permian M&A market. Upstream capex remains much lower that the highs seen in 2014, but we expect sector-wide investment at prices above US$55/bbl Brent and North America should see much of the planned investments.