Energy Snapshot: Industry themes - May 2018

The majors are now being rewarded for their capital discipline. The recovery in the oil price means that their upstream cash margins are close to those at the time of the peak oil price. We have raised our outlook for the Brent oil price with Venezuelan production woes and a reduced rig forecast in the US Lower 48, as takeaway capacity constraints emerge in the US. We also highlight the nascent, but rapidly expanding, US ethane exports. As breakevens have fallen, the majors are leading a cautious rise in the number of upstream projects being sanctioned. Similarly, there are signs that there is still enthusiasm for exploration as large bids were received in the Brazil pre-salt licence round. We have also updated our assessment of the LNG projects competing for the supply gap that is emerging in 2022 and beyond. Finally, the new regulations of IMO 2020 are going to have a profound impact on the shipping industry with significant implications for the refining sector.