Energy Snapshot: Industry themes - May 2019

Upstream M&A was subdued in Q1, but burst into life with Occidental winning the battle for Anadarko. The temptation of the upside in the Permian and a subdued market was too attractive to forgo for Occidental. We forecast a strong rise in investment in LNG, which raises the question of whether higher costs could return? Although China building new infrastructure to attract LNG, short-term LNG charter rates are depressed. But the rise in Carbon prices in Europe should be positive for gas. Upstream, we draw attention to: the Transfer of Rights in Brazil that will attract big signature bonuses, Cyprus assessing where its gas will go and BP sanctioning a big project in Azerbaijan. We are also expecting longer-term offshore rig rates to rise, whilst our short-term oil price is steady, but with less Iranian oil. Downstream, big crude-to-chemical projects are gaining momentum which will impact petrochemical trade flows.