Energy Snapshot: Industry Themes - November 2015

A year after Saudi Arabia's decision to compete for market share, and the collapse in the oil price, the oil industry is responding.  We forecast the oil price to recover to $70/bbl by the end of 2017, as we see decline rates rise and US production slipping by more than the potential increased volumes from Iran. Investment has collapsed and we highlight the fall in exploration drilling and the additional loss of forecast production. The US has become the most attractive investment case at current oil prices.  Elsewhere, the high cost nature of the UK North Sea, combined with poor recent exploration performance, suggests that by 2022 decommissioning expenditure will outweigh new investment. As the corporates re-examine their portfolios, we highlight the proportion of capital expenditure of the large-caps that is yet uncommitted and show the potential deficits of the US independents in 2016.