Energy Snapshot: Industry themes - October 2018

The majors are emerging from the period of lower oil prices with a much stronger production outlook. US tight oil plays an important role and there is strong back log of international projects moving towards FID. There is recovery in the US deepwater, with rising drilling activity at half the cost. Although the service sector has reduced capacity, utilisation rates remain subdued, encouraging investment. Exploration has continued through the downturn. Deepwater is key, accounting for 60% of discovered volumes. Brazil continues to drive exploration enthusiasm. The oil price is anticipated to remain elevated before falling in Spring 2019, when we foresee OPEC spare capacity returning, coinciding with the expectation of increased takeaway capacity from the Permian. We highlight Ethylene investment, driven by a strong growth in North America. We are also on the cusp of a period of strong investment in LNG, but complicated by uncertainty from trade friction for Chinese buyers.