Insight
Europe’s upstream in transition – is growth an option?
Report summary
The European upstream sector is undergoing multiple transitions. The energy mix, corporate landscape and public perception to oil and gas are changing, impacting investment decisions and portfolio planning. At first glance, the outlook looks bleak. Indigenous gas production is in decline and the region is ever more reliant on imports. Public and governmental opinion is increasingly negative towards the industry. The Majors are divesting legacy non-core positions in Europe and bureaucratic issues have delayed key FIDs and start-ups. Yet, there are positives to highlight too. Some of Europe’s fundamental attractions will persist – easy infrastructure access, liberalised markets and competitive fiscal terms. Liquids production will increase in the near term, frontier exploration is abundant, and licensing activity is booming. From this, we recommend three key principles for new small- or mid-cap entrants into Continental Europe.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
What’s the state of play in Europe?
- Exploration – a tale of contrasts
- The negatives: governments are responding to public opposition with new restrictions
- The positives: the Majors have committed to high-impact exploration and licensing rounds abound
- Production – mixed messages as Europe’s gas imports increase
- Gas outlook: obstacles ahead for the ‘energy transition fuel’
- Oil and condensate outlook: growth projects must adapt to align with environmental concerns
-
What are the strengths and weaknesses of the European upstream sector?
- Strengths
- Weaknesses
-
Strategies for success in Continental Europe’s upstream
- 1. Don’t be afraid of mature basins, with potential to scale up by playing across borders
- 2. Prioritise regulatory and fiscal stability above all else
- 3. Pick M&A options wisely, learning lessons from the North Sea
- Majors to rationalise further. Where in Europe will the axe fall next?
- More asset sales by NOCs and ‘national champions’ in Central and Eastern Europe?
- Who are the likely buyers?
- Europe’s upstream in transition – is growth an option?
Tables and charts
This report includes 7 images and tables including:
- European countries with drilling restrictions
- European countries with licensing rounds in 2018-20
- European sales gas production
- European oil and condensate production
- Global fiscal benchmarking – Europe’s competitive advantage
- Global Environmental Regulatory Framework Index
- Majors’ remaining value in Europe (as percentage of global portfolio)
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
24 January 2022
Continental Europe upstream: 2021 in review
Insight
Continental Europe upstream: 2021 in review
2021 was a return to relative normality for Continental Europe’s upstream sector, after the shocks of 2020.
$1,35010 June 2020
After the crash – what's changed in Continental Europe upstream?
Insight
After the crash – what's changed in Continental Europe upstream?
Analysis of our Lens Upstream dataset confirms the severity of investment, production and valuation cuts since the oil market downturn began
$1,35003 October 2017
London Gas, LNG and Power forum 2017: Europe power, supply and costs in transition
Insight
London Gas, LNG and Power forum 2017: Europe power, supply and costs in transition
Examining the prospects of cost-competitive renewables
$2,000
