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ExxonMobil's upstream portfolio is in the best shape since the merger with Mobil.
Tom Ellacott
Senior Vice President, Corporate Research
Tom leads our corporate thought leadership, drawing on more than 20 years' industry knowledge.
Latest articles by Tom
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Opinion
ADNOC acquires 10.1% stake in CCUS player Storegga
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Opinion
ADNOC acquires 10.1% stake in CCUS player Storegga
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Featured
Upstream corporate 2024 outlook
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The Edge
Big Oil: upstream M&A gets serious
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Opinion
The making of a Megamajor – ExxonMobil acquires Pioneer Natural Resources
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The Edge
What's on CEOs' minds
Why buy this report?
You’ll get a deep-dive analysis of ExxonMobil’s investment strategy.
We review ExxonMobil’s strengths and weaknesses, plus what we think are the key risks to future performance. We also scrutinise the SuperMajor’s financial performance, asset base and production profile.
What’s the key takeaway from this report?
ExxonMobil’s portfolio is geared for long-term outperformance. Its main growth projects are low cost, deliver double-digit returns at US$35/bbl and boost the Supermajor's resilience to low prices.
The strategy reinforces ExxonMobil's tried-and-tested focus on returns and long-term fundamentals. But it will have to sacrifice financial performance in the near-term to drive value growth out to 2025.
Report summary
These reports provide unsurpassed proprietary data and analysis, underpinned by our industry leading asset models to help you understand your peers and competitors, and make the best strategic choices.
Table of contents
- Reimagining the Permian could be a gamechanger for Upstream
- Downstream leadership is an additional differentiator
- Building the pillars of the low-carbon strategy
- Targets
- Long-term strategic outlook
- Recent market performance
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Corporate Resilience and Sustainability ratings
- Resilience
- Strengths
- Weaknesses
- Outlook
- Sustainability
- Strengths
- Weaknesses
- Outlook
- ExxonMobil’s guidance and Wood Mackenzie’s take
- Impact of Pioneer
- ExxonMobil has built-in flexibility to drive corporate cash flow breakevens down
- Current strategic positioning
- Overview
- Legacy portfolio
- Growth themes
- Non-core regions
- New Project Returns
- Conventionals and oil sands
- Production outlook
- Overview
- Growth engines
- Oil/gas split
- Portfolio renewal
- Overview
- Exploration
- Overview
- Conventional exploration performance
- Exploration outlook
- Guyana high-impact exploration
- Maturing new exploration plays
- Business development and M&A
- M&A
- Discovered Resource Opportunities
- Overview
- Value and financials
- Refining
- Retail
- Chemicals
- Trading
- Low-carbon strategy
- CCUS
- Hydrogen
- Low Emissions fuels
- Lithium
- The following Insights and Informs provide our take on ExxonMobil's acquisition of Pioneer:
- Strategy updates:
- Company Reports:
Tables and charts
This report includes 27 images and tables including:
- Share price movement indexed to January 2020
- Benchmarking: Market Premium/discount to Wood Mackenzie’s base case valuation
- Resilience ratings: 1) IOC benchmarking; 2) ExxonMobil ratings weighted by Dimension
- Sustainability ratings: 1) IOC benchmarking; 2) ExxonMobil ratings weighted by Dimension
- Gearing versus breakeven pre-share buybacks over 2024 to 2026*
- ExxonMobil’s earnings and operating cash flow guidance versus Wood Mackenzie’s projection
- Wood Mackenzie’s forecast of ExxonMobil’s operating cash flow at US$60/bbl*
- Cash flow breakeven sensitivity
- Wood Mackenzie’s breakdown of ExxonMobil’s upstream NPV10 by region
- Upstream Scope 1 & 2 emissions intensity versus operating cash margins (2024 to 2033)*
- Strategic fit of upstream regions (pre-Pioneer)
- ExxonMobil’s type well WTI NPV,10 breakeven by remaining location
- Benchmark: conventional newfield development returns versus investment*
- ExxonMobil’s newfield conventional development returns versus investment
- Wood Mackenzie: Production CAGR benchmark
- Wood Mackenzie: ExxonMobil's production by country and including the impact of Pioneer
- Benchmark: % gas production
- Value creation through conventional exploration
- Downstream free cash flow benchmarking*
- Refining net margin (in nominal terms) vs capacity: 2030 vs 2024*
- ExxonMobil emissions reduction commitments
- Upstream Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity from equity production*
- Evolution of net CCUS capacity by development status
- Number of hydrogen projects and gross capacity by company
- Valuation assumptions
What's included
This report contains:
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