Federal leases and permits: how much could tight oil shrink?

How severely could President Biden threaten US oil production? To answer this we have modeled a range of outcomes to show the timing and severity of how new onshore federal rules – if they become more invasive - could impact production. Why? The new administration wasted little time. New regulations have already been unveiled for oil and gas producers, with new federal lease sales on pause and approvals of new federal permits taken away from local offices and restricted to senior officials. Approved permits and existing federal leases appear safe, but unknowns mount into the future. Will approved permits be granted extensions if needed? Could any permits be revoked if new environmental regulations make them effectively void? Click through to understand the current regulatory framework, see which operators hold the largest permit backlogs, and how shifting activity to non-federal land could mute the overall supply impact.