Global oil supply long-term 2021 outlook to 2050

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09 June 2021

Global oil supply long-term 2021 outlook to 2050

Report summary

The long-term outlook for global oil supply this update is impacted by several factors, but perhaps most prominent is the effect of accelerating energy transition. As energy transition gains momentum, we have seen large downward revisions to global oil demand post-2035, which has resulted in substantial downgrades to supply in the same period. New sources of supply are still required to meet 2050 demand, with the focus on investment in the most advantaged barrels: those with the lowest breakeven, lowest carbon, good markets and low risk. Liquids capacity is revised upward by 0.4 million b/d to 2030, most notably due to US Lower 48 and to a lesser extent China and Russia. Post-2035, downward revisions dominate, averaging 2.4 million b/d.

Table of contents

    • North America - the key growth region and then the key area for declines in the long term
    • US Lower 48: stronger activity recovery is expected in the near-term, but the long-term lower price has a profound impact on supply
    • The recovery from 2020 lows has been uneven across the Lower 48
    • Above ground challenges: investor scrutiny, operator consolidation and an evolving regulatory landscape
    • Rest of North America – NGL and oil sands supply lead growth, minor downgrades overall
    • Latin America – deepwater projects underpin strong growth
    • Russia and Caspian: medium and long-term supply potential upgraded
    • Africa: emerging production from Uganda and Kenya should stabilise output into the longer term
    • Europe: minor growth to a secondary peak in 2023, then long-term decline
    • Asia: overall liquids output will fall steadily through to 2050, but China and Australia fare best
    • Impact of the energy transition on long term non-OPEC supply
    • 27 million b/d of non-OPEC reserves growth, other discoveries and yet-to-find required by 2050
    • Iraq development slows due to lack of investment following low oil price and revenues
    • Iran capacity stays flat as sanctions assumption remains unchanged
    • UAE turns to unconventional oil in push to meet ambitious capacity targets
    • Saudi Arabia crude capacity is assumed to remain close to 12 million b/d
    • Minor revisions to rest of OPEC production

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