Global oil supply long-term outlook H1 2019

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Why buy this report?

  • Get our latest oil supply forecasts out to 2040, and our assessment of the key risks to these forecasts
  • Understand the themes that will shape global oil supply in the short, medium and long term
  • Learn how we expect geopolitical tensions to affect the oil market

What are the key takeaways from our latest report?

  • Non-OPEC supply growth plateaus at 66 million b/d from 2024, an increase of 8 million b/d from 2018
  • Strong upward revisions are dominated by the US Lower 48; but supported by upgrades to mature producers such as China and Norway, and emerging entrants including Guyana
  • US Lower 48 crude and condensate peaks at 13.3 million b/d in 2024; Permian remains the key focus of activity
  • OPEC crude oil capacity increases steadily through the forecast period, from 35 million b/d in 2018 to 38 million b/d in the early 2030s.

Purchase our report to access a complete set of datasets and charts, including this one, tracking year-by-year changes in supply for OPEC and non-OPEC regions to 2040. Scroll down for the full table of contents.

12 June 2019

Global oil supply long-term outlook H1 2019

Report summary

Global liquids production capacity shows strong increases through the medium term, reaching a plateau of 116 million b/d from 2030. Whilst the shape of the supply outlook is similar to our H2 2018 outlook, volumes are now bigger. Non-OPEC production in particular dominates the increases: on average upgraded by 2.5 million b/d across the period. A more bullish outlook for the US Lower 48 is supported by upgrades to China, Norway and Guyana, amongst others. Perhaps more telling is the lack of any major downgrades to non-OPEC countries as producers emerge from the price downturn stronger. Companies are transitioning to growth mode and investment is returning, although capital discipline remains front of mind.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 2 images and tables including:

  • Year-on-year change in supply
  • US Lower 48 crude and condensate production outlook

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global Oil Supply long-term outlook H1 2019.pdf

    PDF 2.38 MB

  • Document

    Global oil supply long-term outlook H1 2019

    ZIP 2.45 MB

  • Document

    Global Oil supply long-term outlook H1 2019

    ZIP 2.45 MB

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