Global oil supply short-term update - August 2021

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2022. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. On the 18 July, OPEC+ agreed on a compromise plan to bring back crude oil volumes to the market. The agreement allows a 400,000 b/d rise in output across the group per month. It also accommodates the UAE request for a new production reference level. The agreement gives the UAE and four other OPEC+ producers a higher baseline from which production cuts will be made, starting 1 May 2022. Despite the new agreement, our forecast for global supply shows relatively minor changes. Production has been revised up by around 60,000 b/d in 2021 and 170,000 b/d in 2022 to average 96.0 million b/d and 100.6 million b/d respectively. The main revisions focus on upward adjustments to the forecast for US NGLs and the UAE in late-2022, partly offset by a downgrade to US Lower 48 oil production in 2022.