Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - December 2019
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2021. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Global supply is still forecast to show strong growth in 2020, adding 1.8 million b/d. A further one million b/d of growth is projected for 2021. We have revised global supply downward by around 35,000 b/d in 2019, 2020 and 2021. Our base case already included continued production restraint by OPEC+ through 2021, with strong over compliance assumed for Saudi Arabia through the first quarter of 2020, to support the market. Non-OPEC supply growth averages around 2 million b/d in 2020 and 2021 remains strong. Additions are finely balanced between US and non-US – both of which contribute close to 1 million b/d of additional liquids supply in 2020.
Table of contents
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Limited supply changes despite OPEC+ agreement for deeper cuts
- Non-OPEC: minor changes, Russian condensate exempt from OPEC+ cuts
- US Lower 48: onshore unchanged
- OPEC: new deeper cuts and growing unrest in North Africa and the Middle East
- Unrest poses threat to 2020 OPEC supply
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