Data & analytics solutions

Insight 06 December 2024

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Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. At the 5 December OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) agreement was reached to delay the easing of some voluntary production cuts from January to April and to extend the runway for the return of the cuts from 12 to 18 months, should market conditions allow. The new timing for the start of the easing now aligns with our base case, but we assume that OPEC+ will need to reinstate these cuts in 2026, given weakening demand and strong non-OPEC growth. Significant downgrades have been made to our forecast this month, in line with our assumption that OPEC+ will continue to manage the market through 2026. These downgrades are partially balanced by upward revisions to US NGLs and Libya.

Global supply: OPEC+ further delay plan to ease cuts by three months as demand weakens and prices soften
- Non-OPEC supply: downgrades to Russia partly offset by upgrades to US NGLs and Norway
- US Lower 48: strong growth in H2 2024 boosted production to an average of 11 million b/d in 2024
- OPEC: OPEC+ to delay unwinding of cuts to Q2 2025, further extends baseline production adjustments