Global oil supply short-term update - February 2020

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2021. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Total liquids production is forecast to increase 2.1 million b/d this year and 0.7 million b/d in 2021. Global supply has been revised up 210,000 b/d in 2020 and is unchanged in 2021. We continue to witness strength in global supply. Non-OPEC is the catalyst – adding close to 2.4 million b/d in 2020 – split evenly between US onshore unconventionals and other global conventional supply. OPEC crude production falls by around 0.6 million b/d in 2020, compared to a 1.9 million b/d fall in 2019. This reflects a more stable outlook for Iran and Venezuela production, although the recent blockades at Libyan ports, which have removed around 1 million b/d of current supply, pose a downside risk. We continue to assume OPEC+ will maintain production cuts through our short-term analysis.