Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - February 2023
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2024. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Although our overall outlook for supply is little changed from the previous month’s, the market continues to grapple with two issues: the potential fall out from the import bans and price cap on Russian crude and oil products supply, and China’s recovery from its covid crisis. The latest signs are that Russian supply is holding firm. The most significant change we have made is an upgrade for Russia, which is now 200,000 b/d higher in 2023, with lesser upgrades for Nigeria and Libya. These are largely balanced by downward revisions to Norway and to a lesser extent Canada, the US and Brazil.
Table of contents
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Global supply: OPEC+ retains wait and see approach as Russia supply so far holds up
- Impact of Türkiye (Turkey)-Syria earthquake
- Non-OPEC supply: upgrades to Russia, offset by downgrades to Norway, Canada and Brazil
- Russia production remains stable at start of year despite sanctions and price caps
- US Lower 48 growth remains steady heading into 2023
- OPEC supply: no change to OPEC+ strategy leads to stable production
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