Global oil supply short-term update - January 2023

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2024. The written document is accompanied this month by a related excel data download only. The slide pack will resume with the early February report. OPEC+ have left their existing production limits unchanged since the meeting on 4 December. The market waits for clarity on the impact of two key variables: the import bans and price cap on Russian crude and oil products supply; and China’s covid crisis. Global liquids supply has been revised up, by an average of 190,000 b/d in 2023, to average 102.4 million b/d. The changes to supply in 2022 and 2024 are minimal, being an average 40,000 b/d and 20,000 b/d higher respectively. The most significant change is an upgrade for US onshore Lower 48 crude and NGLs, followed by smaller upward revisions for Russia and Nigeria.