Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - January 2024
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied this month by a related excel data download only. The slide pack will resume with the early February report. Non-OPEC supply gained momentum during the last months of 2023 and in this outlook has been upgraded through 2024 and 2025. This is mainly driven by US NGLs, Niger, Brazil and Guyana. However, this is compounded by downgrades to the demand outlook and we now assume that Saudi Arabia and other key Middle East OPEC producers will extend the bulk of their existing voluntary cuts through the second quarter of 2024, to help maintain a balanced market. This has led to an overall downward revision to our outlook for 2024 and 2025.
Table of contents
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Global supply: continued strength of non-OPEC supply adds pressure on OPEC to extend voluntary cuts
- Non-OPEC: upward revisions dominate changes, with first exports from Niger expected in the near-term
- OPEC: Angola leaves OPEC; rest of group confirms commitment to managing market stability
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