Global oil supply short-term update - July 2022

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2023. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. On 30 June, OPEC+ agreed to proceed with the plan to redistribute Septembers planned increase into July and August – this adds 648,000 b/d to both months and closes out the OPEC+ agreement in its current format. Overall, our global supply outlook has been downgraded by 80,000 b/d in 2022, driven by high levels of crude theft and scheduled maintenance in Nigeria and the worsening political situation in Libya. This is partly balanced by upgrades to Russia, where reported production recovered strongly in June, supported by higher crude runs. Production has been revised up by 90,000 b/d in 2023, driven by Mexico and to a lesser extent Canada and US NGLs.