Global oil supply short-term update - June 2019

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2020. The written document is accompanied by a related excel data download. OPEC supply has been downgraded in our outlook this month. The end of waivers for US sanctions on Iran in May led to deeper export declines than expected, and Venezuela output is impacted by heavy oil upgraders being shut down. OPEC liquids supply is forecast to decline by an average 1.7 million b/d in 2019 and 80,000 b/d in 2020. Non-OPEC supply has also been revised downwards as the pace of production growth in Brazil has lagged expectations. Minor adjustments have been made to the US Lower 48 in two key Rockies plays - the Bakken and Niobrara. Non-OPEC supply continues to grow by 2.5 million b/d in 2019, easing to 2.1 million b/d in 2020, this growth is driven by additions in the US and bolstered by growth in Brazil, Canada and Norway.