Country Report

Global oil supply short-term update - June 2022

10 June 2022

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10 June 2022

Global oil supply short-term update - June 2022

Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2023. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. At the latest OPEC+ meeting on 2 June a larger production increase for July and August was agreed. As a result, our forecast for OPEC output has been revised upwards, chiefly for Saudi Arabia. A moderate overall upward revision for global supply in 2022 is also helped by upgrades to Russia supply for the remainder of 2022, based on the outlook for higher crude runs. However, Russia supply faces further pressure in 2023 as the implementation of the EU oil embargo on Russian oil imports comes into effect.

Global supply: OPEC sets the stage for faster production increases
- Russia: EU leaders agree compromise deal on embargo of Russian oil imports
- Non-OPEC supply: number of downgrades overshadow upward revisions to US Lower 48 and Guyana
- US Lower 48: muted response to higher oil prices
- OPEC: OPEC+ agrees to a bigger production increase in July and August