Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - March 2020
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Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2021. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Global liquids supply growth this year is now significantly lower due to reduced expectations for OPEC output, but 2021 supply remains largely unchanged from last month. Total global liquids production is forecast to increase 1.3 million b/d in 2020 and 1.6 million b/d in 2021. OPEC crude production falls by around 1.3 million b/d in 2020, a downward revision of 0.7 million b/d from last month. This reflects a lower outlook for Libya and to a lesser extent Iraq; as well as expected deeper OPEC+ cuts during Q1 and Q2 2020 led by Saudi Arabia. We continue to assume OPEC+ will maintain production cuts through our short-term outlook.
Table of contents
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Global supply: increased outages plus deeper cuts lower OPEC production
- Non-OPEC supply: outlook remains largely unchanged, but lower price could impact US Lower 48 production
- OPEC: Libyan oil port blockades and deeper OPEC cuts remove significant volumes
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