Global oil supply short-term update - March 2023

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2024. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Our short-term outlook will be primarily dictated by three key factors: the pace of non-OPEC supply growth, particularly from the Americas; the scale of supply losses from Russia, as the EU oil and product embargos start to have an impact on production; and the direction of OPEC+ policy over the course of this year. For the latter we continue to assume that OPEC+ does not materially change its October 2022 agreement. At a global level, we have made moderate downward adjustments to the forecast. The most impactful downgrades are for Canada, US NGLs, the North Sea and Kazakhstan. These are partially offset by upgrades to Russia and Nigeria in the very near term, along with a more optimistic outlook for Libya.