Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - May 2020
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2021. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. The focus this month was on the emergency OPEC meeting via videoconference, which concluded on 12 April. At the meeting, OPEC+ agreed to cut production by 9.7 million b/d in May and June 2020. Whist we do not expect full compliance, the cuts will have a dramatic effect on supply. Global supply is now forecast to sharply fall and average 97.2 million b/d in 2020, some 3.4 million b/d below the 2019 level. OPEC crude production falls by 2.9 million b/d in 2020, downward revisions from last month of over 2.5 million b/d. The biggest reductions in output are made by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Non-OPEC liquids production is now forecast to fall by 0.4 million b/d in 2020 and hold flat in 2021. The biggest revisions are to the outlooks for the US Lower 48 and Russia.
Table of contents
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Global liquids supply: production shut-ins begin to bite into oversupply
- OPEC: radical shift in production outlook as landmark agreement reached
- Non-OPEC supply: between a cut and a hard place
- OPEC+ cuts: Russia and the Caspian lead the way
- US Lower 48: cuts, deferrals and shut-ins
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