Global oil supply short-term update - May 2020

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2021. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. The focus this month was on the emergency OPEC meeting via videoconference, which concluded on 12 April. At the meeting, OPEC+ agreed to cut production by 9.7 million b/d in May and June 2020. Whist we do not expect full compliance, the cuts will have a dramatic effect on supply. Global supply is now forecast to sharply fall and average 97.2 million b/d in 2020, some 3.4 million b/d below the 2019 level. OPEC crude production falls by 2.9 million b/d in 2020, downward revisions from last month of over 2.5 million b/d. The biggest reductions in output are made by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Non-OPEC liquids production is now forecast to fall by 0.4 million b/d in 2020 and hold flat in 2021. The biggest revisions are to the outlooks for the US Lower 48 and Russia.