Global oil supply short-term update - October 2022

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2024. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. On 5 October, OPEC+ agreed to make a major production cut of 2 million b/d to the production target for November, acting decisively to counteract the threat to prices from weaker demand growth. However, the OPEC group has failed to keep pace with recent production targets which means the physical impact of these cuts on oil production is reduced. Overall, global liquids supply has been revised down by 50,000 b/d for 2022 and 350,000 b/d for 2023. Downgrades to Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE reflect the new OPEC+ cuts. These are supported by downward revisions to Nigeria, Russia and Kazakhstan. This month we have extended our short-term forecast through 2024, with non-OPEC supply accounting for the majority of the 2.1 million b/d gain in global supply.