Global oil supply short-term update - September 2022

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2023. On 5 September, OPEC+ agreed to a minimal production cut of 100,000 b/d for October, reverting back to the August production level. This reverses the supply increase applied for September and confirms that OPEC+ will maintain a proactive stance towards managing the market. In Iran, hopes to restore a nuclear deal with the US are fading, as issues with unresolved Iranian demands and internal US opposition remain. Overall, global supply changes are small, averaging 40,000 b/d in 2022 and 120,000 b/d in 2023. In 2022, upgrades to Guyana and Iraq are balanced by downgrades to Kazakhstan and the US, chiefly to our outlook for US NGLs. Russia is responsible for the majority of the downgrades to 2023, as we anticipate weaker crude runs during Q1, following the implementation of the EU oil and products ban. Additional downgrades to the UAE and the US are offset by upgrades to Guyana.