Global oil supply short-term update - September 2024

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Concerns over the strength of global demand persist and prices have fallen significantly over the last week. On 5 September 2024, OPEC announced that the eight participating countries have agreed to extend their additional voluntary cuts by two months, depending on market conditions. Given the scale of the downward shift in prices and our market assessment, we have made a change to our base case forecast. We now assume that OPEC+ will delay its plan, to begin easing some production cuts by six months from the original target. Having previously considered that the easing would start from the beginning of October 2024, we now assume it will start from the beginning of April 2025.