In our Global Oil Supply strategic planning outlook to 2050, the long-term outlook for global oil supply is revised upward by an average of 0.7 million b/d through 2040, primarily due to higher activity levels onshore US Lower 48. Post-2040, downward revisions dominate, averaging 0.8 million b/d, as demand declines accelerate. Non-OPEC supply begins to decline in the early 2030s, leading to increasing reliance on OPEC supply. New sources of supply are still needed to meet demand in the longer term, meaning continued investment in the upstream sector is critical. The heightened geopolitical tension triggered by the Russia/Ukraine conflict poses huge uncertainty to our outlook, which reflects a pre-conflict view for Russia in the base case. We analyse the key risks to Russian supply and what a post-conflict scenario may look like over the next decade.