Global Oil Supply strategic planning outlook - March 2024

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In our Global Oil Supply strategic planning outlook to 2050, liquids production capacity increases from 109 million b/d in 2024 to a peak of 116.5 million b/d in the early 2030s, before beginning a slow decline, with capacity falling to 96 million b/d by 2050. Capital discipline and investment efficiency will remain a top priority for companies: as a result, upstream spending is now increasingly focused on delivering advantaged barrels – low cost, low carbon intensive supply. Despite downgraded production capacity targets for Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s share of liquids capacity increases post-2035 as non-OPEC production declines accelerate.

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