Insight
Global upstream: 5 things to look for in 2026
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The gap between near and long-term oil price expectations will widen in 2026. Sub-US$60/bbl, the upstream sector will remain optimistic yet shackled by capital discipline and financial constraints. Operators will doggedly pursue operational excellence to create competitive edge. Adversity breeds innovation with joint ventures, new country entries and technology-led recovery factor improvements all on the table in 2026. These are the key themes we believe will shape 2026: 1. A second consecutive year of moderate spending cuts paired with sharper efficiency focus 2. Operators adding material growth opportunities for the 2030s 3. Brownfield rejuvenation and recovery factors gain prominence 4. New upstream business models and cross-border partnerships 5. Key inflection points in US upstream create global ripple effects.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- 1. A second year of moderate spending cuts and sharper efficiency focus
- 2. Operators will add material new growth opportunities
- 3. Brownfield rejuvenation and recovery factors will gain prominence
- 4. New deals, new upstream business models and new partnerships
- 5. Key inflections that matter in the world’s "dominant" hotspot
- Things to look for in 2026 – a regional upstream series
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Major project sanction countMajor project committed spendTop 10 countries' DROs by hydrocarbon type
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Top 10 countries' DROs by resource themeExxonMobil’s Permian synergy estimatesChevron’s chemically enhanced upliftLower 48 crude and condensate year-on-year change
What's included
This report contains:
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