Country Report
Global upstream oil supply summary - November 2018
Report summary
The oil supply summary monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2019. The written document is accompanied by a related excel data download. Global supply growth remains robust, with 2018 and 2019 revised up, and 2020 revised down slightly. Global liquids supply is forecast to grow 2.2 million b/d in 2018, 1.6 million b/d in 2019 and 1.4 million b/d in 2020. Supply in Q4 2018 is being bolstered by substantial increases in Russia and Saudi Arabia, as compliance to production cuts eases in a bid to alleviate market concerns over perceived tightness in the market. In addition to these volumes, Libyan production has rebounded in recent weeks, surpassing one million b/d. US L48 supply has also been upgraded thanks to the announcement that EPIC's NGL pipeline in the Permian will be converted to a crude oil pipeline initially, with a start-up date targeting Q3 2019.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Global supply: fourth quarter supply boost as Iran sanctions begin
- US Lower 48: easing bottlenecks as EPIC to temporarily convert NGL pipeline to carry crude oil
- OPEC: Iran sanctions took effect on 5 November
- Iran: exports plunge as sanctions re-imposed
- Libya: short term stability leads to increased output, but risks remain
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