Long-term oil supply outlook - May 2014

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Report summary

In tandem with the release of our latest global dataset in the Oil Supply Tool we outline the key trends in our forecast to 2030.  Included as appendices in this report are sections on breakeven costs for new production and the political assumptions behind our supply outlook.  The analysis is based on the supply commentary within our latest market forecast, the Long Term Outlook published in our sister Macro Oils Service.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Non-OPEC
  • North America
  • Latin America
  • Europe
  • Russia and the Caspian
  • Asia and Oceania
  • Africa
  • Middle East
  • OPEC Supply Capacity Outlook
  • Unconventionals
  • Processing gains
  • Appendix 1: The marginal cost of new supply provides a floor for prices
    • OPEC
    • Non-OPEC

Tables and charts

This report includes 26 images and tables including:


  • Global capacity outlook (million b/d)
  • North America production outlook (million b/d)
  • Breakout of US and Canada liquids supply (million b/d)
  • Latin America production outlook (million b/d)
  • Europe production outlook (million b/d)
  • Russia and the Caspian production outlook (million b/d)
  • Asia and Oceania production outlook (million b/d)
  • Africa production outlook (million b/d)
  • Middle East production outlook (million b/d)
  • Non-OPEC oil supply to 2030
  • OPEC oil/NGL capacity (million b/d)
  • Unconventionals Production to 2030 ('000 b/d)


  • Global year-on-year change in supply and total production capacity
  • Assessment of average May 2014 supply losses
  • Non OPEC regional production
  • Change to non-OPEC regional supply since November 2013
  • North America liquids production outlook
  • Regional US and Canadian liquid production for 2014, 2020 and 2030
  • Brazil production outlook - pre-salt volumes vital to long term growth
  • OPEC production capacity
  • Change to OPEC supply since November 2013
  • Libyan infrastructure and current disruptions to production
  • Chart showing forecast for Iraq/Kurdistan, and revisions since November 2013
  • Unconventionals outlook
  • US tight oil new development volumes by breakeven*
  • Other new development volumes by breakeven*

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