The boom years for Lower 48 production growth are behind us. Investor pressure and reduced budgets are taking near term volumes out of the market. But that doesn’t mean all growth is gone. As long as tier-one inventory remains, oil supply creeps up. Once core locations are exhausted though, well size drops significantly and the story pivots towards holding a plateau. For gas, associated volumes drive the market. But like oil, gas supply trends are very dependent on tight oil tier-one inventory too. Price stabilization is dependent on capital discipline in dry gas plays. In this supply Insight, we take a look at the regional Lower 48 drivers and play-level nuances that underpin our forecasts. • Which plays can still drive growth when capital is more costly? • Where specifically do we exhaust inventory first? • How could an unexpected step change in price impact our outlook?