Lower 48 long-term oil and gas supply outlook: H1 2024

Significant new drilling will be needed to offset base production declines and meet growing demand. By the early 2030s, the Lower 48 will add 10 million b/d of new oil production, but after accounting for declines, top-line growth will be just over 1 million b/d from current levels. While remaining oil inventory is decreasing, most top oil subplays still have runway. Soft prices are limiting near-term gas production growth, but resilient power demand and increasing LNG exports are driving long-term market expansion. Lower 48 gas production is expected to grow by 25 bcfd over the next decade. Most of this growth will come from Texas, New Mexico, and Louisiana. The recent wave of Lower 48 M&A has consolidated more production among fewer companies. As a result, corporate behaviors of the largest producers now have a greater impact on supply trajectory and response to commodity price changes.