Insight
Nigeria deepwater: assessing the impact of the 2026 incentives
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Nigeria’s 2026 deepwater incentives package targets both greenfield and brownfield pre-FID projects. It aims primarily to advance major projects like Bonga Southwest Aparo, Zabazaba-Etan and Owowo towards FID, while also enhancing the commercial viability of smaller deepwater fields. The package addresses two key investment barriers: weak project economics for greenfield developments and unfavourable profit-sharing terms for new developments within established producing blocks.
Table of contents
- Profit oil reset: big boost for contractors in large producing areas
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Supplementary PTCs: closing the gap but at what cost?
- How the standard and supplementary PTCs work for liquids
- Discounted cash flow impact across PTC rates
- Oil price sensitivity
- Cost-base sensitivity
- Effectiveness of the credits
- Large oil fields benefit less from the 2026 terms
- Production tax credits are a regressive fiscal lever
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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NPV10/boe: Bonga Southwest, Bosi and PreoweiNPV10 varying oil price and PTC rate (medium cost development)NPV10 varying cost base and PTC rate (at US$60/bbl oil price)
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NPV10 varying oil price and PTC rate (base cost profile)NPV10 varying cost base and PTC rate (at US$60/bbl oil price)Government share and investor IRR at $60/bbl: 200 mmbblGovernment share and investor IRR at $60/bbl: 600 mmbblState-share % of NPV0 versus pre-share IRR under different deepwater fiscal terms
What's included
This report contains:
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