Nigeria’s deepwater revival: why this time is different

After more than a decade of stagnation, Nigeria’s deepwater sector is showing signs of a recovery. Improved fiscal incentives, renewed interest from Shell, ExxonMobil, Eni and TotalEnergies, and the landmark sanction of Bonga North in 2024 have reignited confidence. A pipeline of major projects including Bonga Southwest-Aparo, Zabazaba, Etan, Owowo, Usan and Nnwa-Doro, could add substantial oil and gas production, supporting both Nigeria’s production ambitions and the Majors’ post-2030 growth strategies. However, the opportunity comes with urgency: attractive tax credits are time-limited, ageing FPSOs are narrowing tieback options, and project execution risks, from partner alignment to supply-chain constraints, could still delay progress. This report examines the drivers behind the sector’s revival, the most important development opportunities, and the key milestones that will determine whether Nigeria’s deepwater resurgence gains lasting momentum.