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Nigeria’s deepwater revival: why this time is different

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After more than a decade of stagnation, Nigeria’s deepwater sector is showing signs of a recovery. Improved fiscal incentives, renewed interest from Shell, ExxonMobil, Eni and TotalEnergies, and the landmark sanction of Bonga North in 2024 have reignited confidence. A pipeline of major projects including Bonga Southwest-Aparo, Zabazaba, Etan, Owowo, Usan and Nnwa-Doro, could add substantial oil and gas production, supporting both Nigeria’s production ambitions and the Majors’ post-2030 growth strategies. However, the opportunity comes with urgency: attractive tax credits are time-limited, ageing FPSOs are narrowing tieback options, and project execution risks, from partner alignment to supply-chain constraints, could still delay progress. This report examines the drivers behind the sector’s revival, the most important development opportunities, and the key milestones that will determine whether Nigeria’s deepwater resurgence gains lasting momentum.
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Table of contents

  • Bonga North: near-term production growth (Shell operated)
  • Bonga Southwest-Aparo (Shell operated)
  • Zabazaba and Etan (Eni operated)
  • Owowo, Usan and Bosi (ExxonMobil operated)
  • Nnwa-Doro: gas-led upside (Chappal Energies & Shell operated)
  • Exploration and appraisal opportunities
  • Partner alignment and budget competition
  • Execution bottlenecks and cost pressure
  • Portfolio reshaping and partner alignment
  • Project milestones

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    Liquids outlookGas outlookNew projects

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    Nigeria’s deepwater revival: why this time is different

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