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Pre-FID projects at risk - can new conventional fields compete with the next wave of tight oil?

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Report summary

The future of yet to be sanctioned greenfield conventional projects is in serious doubt after a tumultuous few years for oil company finances. Stretched balance sheets marginal project economics and competition for scarce capital from US tight oil mean that many potential developments are at risk of further delay or cancellation. The uncertain outlook for higher cost developments threatens global oil and gas supply and corporate growth next decade. We look at the scale geographic distribution and economics of greenfield conventional projects.

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    Pre-FID projects at risk - can new conventional fields compete with the next wave of tight oil?

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Tables and charts

This report includes 16 images and tables including:

Images

  • Pre-FID projects at risk - can new conventional fields compete with the next wave of tight oil?: Image 1
  • Global upstream investment outlook
  • Company peer group production outlook
  • Breakeven curve of pre-FID conventional liquids projects versus US tight oil @15% discount rate
  • Pre-FID gas resource volumes by country and project breakeven
  • Pre-FID gas production outlook by project breakeven
  • Pre-FID projects at risk - can new conventional fields compete with the next wave of tight oil?: Image 11
  • Pre-FID projects at risk - can new conventional fields compete with the next wave of tight oil?: Image 16
  • Pre-FID project liquids resource volumes by country and project NPV,15 breakeven
  • Pre-FID oil production outlook by project NPV,15 breakeven
  • Resource distribution of conventional pre-FID oil projects with IRR>15% at US$60/bbl long-term Brent
  • Breakeven curve (15% IRR, Brent equivalent) for pre-FID oil conventional projects
  • Reduction in capex/boe from late 2014 pre-FID fields to 2017
  • Cost deflation scenarios for selected pre-FID fields
  • Government take NPV,10 from pre-FID projects by country (Top 10)
  • Government take NPV,10 by project breakeven (15% IRR)

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