Insight
Regional fiscal benchmarking: Black Sea and Caspian
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The Black Sea and Caspian are at an upstream inflection point. The Black Sea is one of the most advantaged gas-focused basins globally, with four of the ten largest gas fields starting up in Europe this decade sitting here. In the Caspian, record production is expected in 2026 — but a structural investment cliff-edge looms if new projects fail to reach FID. The question is no longer geological — it is fiscal. In this report, we compare the current fiscal state of play in Black Sea and the Caspian.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Exploration and greenfield investment
- Late-life assets and brownfield investment
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Exploration and greenfield investment
- Oil projects – the progressivity test
- Gas developments – breakeven price analysis
- Late-life assets and brownfield investment
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Typical fiscal evolution of a basin (Black Sea and Caspian)Key upstream fiscal changes and events in the Black Sea and Caspian regions (2020 onwards)Maximum state share (Black Sea and Caspian – oil, US$80/bbl)
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Maximum state share (Black Sea and Caspian – gas, US$8/mcf)Progressive vs regressive fiscal systems – price change (Black Sea and Caspian – oil)Effective royalty rate at US$80/bbl (Black Sea and Caspian – oil)Progressive vs regressive fiscal systems – cost overrun (Black Sea and Caspian – oil)Breakeven gas price analysis, target IRR: 15% (Black Sea and Caspian)
What's included
This report contains:
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