Name: Regional fiscal benchmarking: Black Sea and Caspian
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 227959
Price: 1350 USD
Availability: OnlineOnly
Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 25 June 2026

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Report summary

The Black Sea and Caspian are at an upstream inflection point. The Black Sea is one of the most advantaged gas-focused basins globally, with four of the ten largest gas fields starting up in Europe this decade sitting here. In the Caspian, record production is expected in 2026 — but a structural investment cliff-edge looms if new projects fail to reach FID. The question is no longer geological — it is fiscal. In this report, we compare the current fiscal state of play in Black Sea and the Caspian.

Executive summary
- Exploration and greenfield investment
- Late-life assets and brownfield investment
Exploration and greenfield investment
- Oil projects – the progressivity test
- Gas developments – breakeven price analysis
Late-life assets and brownfield investment

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Typical fiscal evolution of a basin (Black Sea and Caspian)Key upstream fiscal changes and events in the Black Sea and Caspian regions (2020 onwards)Maximum state share (Black Sea and Caspian – oil, US$80/bbl)

Maximum state share (Black Sea and Caspian – gas, US$8/mcf)Progressive vs regressive fiscal systems – price change (Black Sea and Caspian – oil)Effective royalty rate at US$80/bbl (Black Sea and Caspian – oil)Progressive vs regressive fiscal systems – cost overrun (Black Sea and Caspian – oil)Breakeven gas price analysis, target IRR: 15% (Black Sea and Caspian)