Insight
Russian Federation upstream: 4 things to look for in 2026
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Report summary
There are numerous uncertainties for Russia’s oil and gas industry in 2026, from the evolution of EU/US sanctions policy to the impact of drone strikes. While modest upstream recovery is anticipated, the success or failure of peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine will determine outcomes for Russia’s upstream. We highlight the four key themes to watch in 2026: Oil – what risks are there to Russia’s crude oil production outlook? Piped gas and LNG – what challenges does Russia face in growing exports? EU/US sanctions – what trajectory might they take? Import substitution – how much progress can Russia make?
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- 1. Russia’s oil in 2026 – a year of uncertainty
- 2. Gas production to remain low, but stable
- 3. EU/US/UK sanctions – known unknowns
- 4. Import substitution and in-house technology will continue to be key to long-term stability
- Things to look for in 2026 – a regional upstream series
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Russian crude oil production grows by 340 kb/d in 2026 as OPEC+ cuts unwindRussia Federation gas exports (year-on-year)US oil-related sanctions on RussiaRussian majors’ technological advances
What's included
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