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Russia's optimal tax model for keeping oil production above 10 million b/d

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12 July 2017

Russia's optimal tax model for keeping oil production above 10 million b/d

Report summary

How can Russia maintain oil production above 10 million b/d until 2035? The near-term future for Russian oil production is promising, but what role can fiscal policy play to reverse the downward trend of Russian oil production after 2020? Our fiscal tool shows how sensitive project economics under the current revenue-based system are to an increase in costs of extraction, and why introducing a profit-based system makes sense to stimulate production out to 2035. Getting fiscal policy right to stimulate oil production matters for companies, the federal budget and the wider Russian economy. There is oil in the ground but companies need to invest more to produce it. The right fiscal incentives at the right time for the right onshore fields will go some way to keeping production above 10 million b/d by 2035.

Table of contents

  • Fiscal policy: the story so far
  • If it ain't broke, why try to fix it?
  • Producing results
  • Economic activity
  • Conclusion

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