Russia's upstream fiscal options for the energy transition Report

Insight 04 February 2022

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Report summary

Russia’s near-term oil and gas export options have been brought into sharp focus by the unfolding Ukraine crisis. How this situation will play out remains unclear. There are also long-term risks, particularly in export markets, driven by the energy transition. Oil and gas prices matter to Russia. The federal budget is hugely reliant on tax revenue from the hydrocarbon sector. The pace of the transition looms large in government thinking. We evaluate the upstream fiscal options the Russian government has: • What options does Russia have if oil demand and prices fall? • How could regulatory changes in other countries impact Russia? • What will be the domestic impact of an accelerated energy transition? • How resilient is the Russian economy to reduced hydrocarbon revenue? • What are the alternative paths to fiscal stability in an accelerated transition?

Executive summary
- How important are hydrocarbon tax receipts to Russia?
- Why does the pace of the energy transition matter to Russia?
- What options does Russia have if oil demand and prices fall?
- How could regulatory changes in other countries impact Russia?
- What will be the domestic impact of an accelerated energy transition?
- How resilient is the Russian economy to reduced upstream fiscal revenue?
- What are the alternative paths to fiscal stability in an accelerated transition?