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Russia's upstream fiscal options for the energy transition

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04 February 2022

Russia's upstream fiscal options for the energy transition

Report summary

Russia’s near-term oil and gas export options have been brought into sharp focus by the unfolding Ukraine crisis. How this situation will play out remains unclear. There are also long-term risks, particularly in export markets, driven by the energy transition. Oil and gas prices matter to Russia. The federal budget is hugely reliant on tax revenue from the hydrocarbon sector. The pace of the transition looms large in government thinking. We evaluate the upstream fiscal options the Russian government has: • What options does Russia have if oil demand and prices fall? • How could regulatory changes in other countries impact Russia? • What will be the domestic impact of an accelerated energy transition? • How resilient is the Russian economy to reduced hydrocarbon revenue? • What are the alternative paths to fiscal stability in an accelerated transition?

Table of contents

    • How important are hydrocarbon tax receipts to Russia?
    • Why does the pace of the energy transition matter to Russia?
    • What options does Russia have if oil demand and prices fall?
    • How could regulatory changes in other countries impact Russia?
    • What will be the domestic impact of an accelerated energy transition?
    • How resilient is the Russian economy to reduced upstream fiscal revenue?
    • What are the alternative paths to fiscal stability in an accelerated transition?

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

  • 2019 federal budget* of the Russian Federation: tax and spend
  • Oil and gas contribution to the federal budget
  • Russian export revenues by product
  • Russian hydrogen exports

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Russia's upstream fiscal options for the energy transition

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