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Saudi Aramco corporate report

Norman Valentine

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Saudi Aramco financials report

The Saudi Arabian Oil Company stands on the brink of transformation. A longstanding leader in oil production, it now wants to become an undisputed global energy champion. Put simply, the goal is to become the world’s premier integrated oil and gas company. Saudi Aramco will need a huge expansion through the energy value chain. A mix of large-scale organic investment and M&A will bring step changes in Saudi Aramco's refining and marketing, trading, petrochemicals and global gas businesses. We look how the Saudi Arabian Oil Company could be transformed into the number one integrated energy player by 2030.

Saudi Aramco’s financials are enough to turn any CEO green with envy. We estimate upstream cash flow last year was over three times larger than Shell’s, the most cash-generative of the supermajors.

Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst, on

Why buy this report on Saudi Aramco financials?

  • Gain an in-depth view of the company's financials as the world’s biggest oil producer opens its books for the first time

  • Understand how Saudi Aramco financial statements compare with the largest international oil companies

  • Access our assessment of the company's future financial prospects and strategy, and our comprehensive valuation based on future cash flows

What key questions does this report answer?

  • What’s driving Aramco’s ambition?

  • If the SABIC acquisition is the first step, what’s next?

  • What risk does a low oil price present to Saudi Aramco’s financial strength?

10 December 2020

Saudi Aramco corporate report

Report summary

Low oil prices mean the world’s largest and most profitable oil company must reassess its priorities. Dividends totalling US$75 billion a year impose tough financial constraints on Aramco’s growth and diversification ambitions. It must also find room for a new wave of investment after the Saudi government mandated an increase in oil capacity from 12 to 13 million b/d. We look at how Aramco is responding to the challenges of low oil prices.

Table of contents

  • SWOT analysis
  • Overview
    • Upstream
    • Downstream
  • Recent market performance
  • Overview
  • Response to 2020 oil price collapse
  • Company targets
  • Financial outlook
    • Oil prices
    • Dividends
    • Investment
    • Asset sales
  • Production outlook
    • Oil capacity expansion
    • Current oil production capacity
    • Brownfield offshore expansions will maintain near-term capacity
    • MSC expansion to 13 million b/d
    • Long-term oil development potential
    • Growth in gas
    • Overview
    • Shift to non-associated offshore gas
    • Unconventional gas development will drive further gas output growth
    • New gas supply will displace oil in the power sector and support development of industrial clusters
    • Integration in petrochemicals will see Aramco capture a bigger share of the gas value chain
    • Gas exploration
    • International gas
  • Overview
    • Overview
    • Current refining portfolio
    • Middle East
    • Asia Pacific
    • North America
    • Refining Investment
    • Saudi Arabia
    • International
  • Trading
    • Saudi Arabia
    • International
    • Overview
    • Saudi Arabia
    • Olefins
    • Aromatics
    • International
    • SABIC
    • Overview
    • Overview
    • Carbon reduction targets
    • Carbon capture, utilisation and storage
    • Hydrogen
    • Saudi Aramco Energy Ventures
    • Wood Mackenzie base case valuation metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case investment and cost metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case upstream production metrics
    • Wood Mackenzie base case upstream reserve and resource metrics

Tables and charts

This report includes 40 images and tables including:

  • Relative share price performance
  • Market premium/discount to WM base case NPV10 at US$50/bbl long-term real Brent
  • Post dividend cash flow outlook (including SABIC acquisition but excluding future M&A)*
  • Saudi Aramco cash flow breakeven breakdown
  • Saudi Aramco production outlook
  • Benchmark: production outlook
  • Benchmarking: upstream capital investment (WM projections – commercial assets only)
  • Benchmarking: development spend per unit of production
  • Saudi Aramco working interest liquids production by location
  • Liquids production from Aramco's key fields
  • Saudi Aramco key oil fields
  • Saudi Aramco key gas infrastructure
  • Saudi Aramco net WI sales gas production
  • Benchmark: refining capacity vs oil production
  • Benchmarking: Refining Net Cash Margin 2020
  • Saudi Aramco refinery interests by region
  • Saudi Aramco principal petrochemical sites by region
  • Benchmark: Saudi Aramco ethylene cost of production 2019
  • SABIC principal petrochemical sites by region
  • Saudi Aramco and SABIC key petrochemical capacities
  • Base case upstream NPV10*
  • Current upstream NPV10 vs. future NPV10*
  • Upstream NPV10*
  • Upstream portfolio sensitivities
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Forecast operating expenditure (nominal)
  • Reported and WM forecast production
  • Liquids Production
  • Liquid vs. Gas
  • Gas production
  • Total reserves: Wood Mackenzie commercial*
  • Total reserves: Wood Mackenzie oil and gas*
  • Total resources: Wood Mackenzie by region*
  • Reserve life: Wood Mackenzie oil and gas*
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • High price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Low price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Valuation assumptions

What's included

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Listen in as the authors of this report discuss the unrivaled financial strength of Saudi Aramco.