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Shell and ExxonMobil's Groningen future lies on shaky ground

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Report summary

A pivotal new chapter has begun at Groningen, Europe's largest gas field. In response to earthquakes in the vicinity of the field in January, the Dutch mining association published its recommendation to the Ministry of Economic Affairs to reduce the annual production cap to 12 bcm by gas year 2021/2022. If implemented, this would reduce annual output by nearly half from the current 21.6 bcm cap. In order to assess the potential impact of this most recent proposal, we evaluate two scenarios for the future of Groningen — the current proposal for a 12 bcm cap, and a worst case shut-in scenario, should seismic activity continue. Both highlight the far-reaching implications, not only for the Dutch upstream industry, but also the European gas market and the stakeholders involved.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Shell and ExxonMobil's Groningen future lies on shaky ground

    PDF 723.89 KB

Table of contents

    • Groningen's deepest production cut
    • How significant is Groningen?
    • Implications for the European gas market
    • Possible alternatives to Groningen gas
    • Managing demand for Groningen low-cal gas
    • Conclusions

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

Images

  • The Dutch upstream sector
  • The evolution of the cap
  • Dutch gas production vs Groningen production
  • Monthly Groningen gas production
  • Scenario 1 vs 2: Value and remaining reserves
  • Scenario 1 vs 2: Production profiles
  • Europe supply-demand mix*
  • Changes in European import dependency due to Groningen caps
  • Potential sources of alternative supply vs. change in Groningen output by 2021
  • Northwest Europe low-calorie gas consumption

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